From time to time we have been taking note of the adventures and misadventures of the proposed high-speed rail line that when built (or perhaps more accurately, if built) would run between Los Angeles and San Francisco at three-figure speeds, but which for some strange reason is planned to begin construction in the proverbial middle of nowhere in California’s Central Valley, around Chowchilla and Bakersfield.
Now, we get the dispatch that life and the threadbare condition of Uncle Sam’s purse being what they are, prospects of a sizable federal contribution to the construction of that rail line, are growing dim and are casting a pall on the project. No wonder. The cost of that high-speed line was at first estimated at $43 billion, but according to “some estimates,” says the Los Angeles Times, that figure is more like $65 billion. According to the nonpartisan Office of the Legislative Analyst, says the Times, the cost could hit $67 billion. The State of California plans to contribute $9 billion in bonds, which makes its contribution 20% or 13%, depending on which cost estimate you believe. See Ralph Vartabedian, Deficit Could Derail Bullet Train, L.A. Times, September 8, 2011 — click here. So practically speaking, what it all boils down to is: no hefty Uncle Sam contribution — no high speed rail.
In the meantime, high-speed rail proponents are arguing in favor of acquiring the right-of-way and beginning construction, on the premise that somehow the funds will be found once the project is underway. In the old days, they might have said “The Lord will provide,” but these days we don’t expect them to say that, because though the Lord is demonstrably good at parting the sea, the record is sparse in the matter of the Lord building railways.
So even as Congress is looking at cutting the federal budget in general, and its transportation spending in particular, the Obama adminstration is talking in terms of an $8 billion increase in rail program funding. Will it happen? It’s possible, but we wouldn’t bet on it.
We have no problem with railroad construction. We like railroads and your faithful servant uses them when appropriate. But as the Good Book says, for everything there is a season, and when Uncle Sam has his bonds downgraded and is staring at the possibility of default, that would not appear to be the prime season for gigabuck expenditures for high-speed railroad building in the boondocks of California.
So stay tuned, and see how it turns out.
Follow up. The House Appropriations Subcommitte on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development slashed the proposed Federal Railroad Adminstration budget and in the process reduced Uncle Sam’s proposed $8 billion contribution to high-speed rail by a whopping $7 billion, leaving only $1 billion for existing operations. The full House Apprpopriation Committee is yet to approve this cut. Ralph Vartabedian, State High-Speed Rail Project Takes Financial Hit, L.A. Times. September 9, 2011.